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Q4 2020 Western Washington Real Estate Market Update
The following analysis of the Western Washington real estate market is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact any of our team members at Team Abolafia!
REGIONAL ECONOMIC OVERVIEW
After the COVID-19-induced declines, employment levels in Western Washington continue to rebuild. Interestingly, the state re-benchmarked employment numbers, which showed that the region lost fewer jobs than originally reported. That said, regional employment is still 133,000 jobs lower than during the 2020 peak in February. The return of jobs will continue, but much depends on new COVID-19 infection rates and when the Governor can reopen sections of the economy that are still shut down. Unemployment levels also continue to improve. At the end of the quarter, the unemployment rate was a very respectable 5.5%, down from the peak rate of 16.6% in April. The rate varies across Western Washington, with a low of 4.3% in King County and a high of 9.6% in Grays Harbor County. My current forecast calls for employment levels to continue to improve as we move through the spring. More robust growth won’t happen until a vaccine becomes widely distributed, which is unlikely to happen before the summer.
WESTERN WASHINGTON HOME SALES
❱ Sales continued to impress, with 23,357 transactions in the quarter. This was an increase of 26.6% from the same period in 2019, but 8.3% lower than in the third quarter of last year, likely due to seasonality.
❱ Listing activity remained very low, even given seasonality. Total available inventory was 37.3% lower than a year ago and 31.2% lower than in the third quarter of 2020.
❱ Sales rose in all counties, with San Juan County seeing the greatest increase. This makes me wonder if buyers are actively looking in more remote markets given ongoing COVID-19 related concerns.
❱ Pending sales—a good gauge of future closings—were 25% higher than a year ago but down 31% compared to the third quarter of 2020. This is unsurprising, given limited inventory and seasonal factors.
WESTERN WASHINGTON HOME PRICES
❱ Home price growth in Western Washington continued the trend of above-average appreciation. Prices were up 17.4% compared to a year ago, with an average sale price of $617,475.
❱ Year-over year price growth was strongest in Lewis and Grays Harbor counties. Home prices declined in San Juan County which is notoriously volatile because of its small size.
❱ It is interesting to note that home prices were only 1% higher than third quarter of 2020. Even as mortgage rates continued to drop during the quarter, price growth slowed, and we may well be hitting an affordability ceiling in some markets.
❱ Mortgage rates will stay competitive as we move through 2021, but I expect to see price growth moderate as we run into affordability issues, especially in the more expensive counties.
DAYS ON MARKET
❱ 2020 ended with a flourish as the average number of days it took to sell a home in the final quarter dropped by a very significant 16 days compared to a year ago.
❱ Snohomish County was again the tightest market in Western Washington, with homes taking an average of only 15 days to sell. The only county that saw the length of time it took to sell a home rise compared to the same period a year ago was small Jefferson County, but it was only an increase of four days.
❱ Across the region, it took an average of 31 days to sell a home in the quarter. It is also worth noting that, even as we entered the winter months, it took an average of five fewer days to sell a home than in the third quarter of last year.
❱ The takeaway here is that demand clearly remains strong, and competition for the few homes available to buy continues to push days on market lower.
CONCLUSIONS
This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s real estate market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors.
Demand has clearly not been impacted by COVID-19, mortgage rates are still very favorable, and limited supply is causing the region’s housing market to remain incredibly active. Because of these conditions, I am moving the needle even further in favor of sellers.
2021 is likely to lead more homeowners to choose to move if they can work from home, which will continue to drive sales growth and should also lead to more inventory. That said, affordability concerns in markets close to Western Washington’s job centers, in combination with modestly rising mortgage rates, should slow the rapid home price appreciation we have seen for several years. I, for one, think that is a good thing.
ABOUT MATTHEW GARDNER
As Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, Matthew Gardner is responsible for analyzing and interpreting economic data and its impact on the real estate market on both a local and national level. Matthew has over 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.
In addition to his day-to-day responsibilities, Matthew sits on the Washington State Governors Council of Economic Advisors; chairs the Board of Trustees at the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at the University of Washington; and is an Advisory Board Member at the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington where he also lectures in real estate economics.
This post originally appeared on the Windermere.com Blog
Local Market Update – December 2020
Nothing about 2020 is normal, and that includes real estate trends. The housing market typically slows significantly during the holiday season, but that is not the case this year. Buyer interest is strong, sales are up, and prices have followed suit.
A recent report ranked our area as the most competitive real estate market in the country, with 71% of homes selling within two weeks. While the number of new listings in November were up compared to a year ago, there just wasn’t enough inventory to meet the current surge in demand.
In King County there were 37% fewer single-family homes on the market – 1,621 homes this November vs. 2,592 a year ago. Inventory in Snohomish County is even more strained. At the end of the month there were just 416 homes for sale as compared to 1,204 a year ago, a 65% drop. Both counties had about a two week supply of homes at the end of November. A four month supply of inventory is considered balanced. Buyers in the market for a condominium in King County had much more options. Condo inventory was up 39% over last year.
The inventory-starved market sent home prices higher. The median single-family home price in King County was up 10% over a year ago to $730,500. Home prices in Snohomish County rose 14% to $566,000. In a survey of homebuyers looking for a home during Covid-19, 82% said they would go over budget to get their ideal home. Record-low interest rates have helped soften the blow of soaring prices a bit. According to Freddie Mac, rates on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage fell to their lowest level, at 2.71%, for the 14th time this year.
With low inventory and high demand, buyers need to be ready to compete. That means being pre-approved or willing to offer cash, and working with an agent on a plan that includes counter-offers, escalation clauses and other strategies to help win the sale. As many consider working remotely long-term, our home has become more important to us than ever.
The charts below provide a brief overview of market activity. If you are interested in more information, every Monday Windermere Chief Economist Matthew Gardner provides an update regarding the impact of COVID-19 on the US economy and housing market. You can get Matthew’s latest update here.
EASTSIDE
KING COUNTY
SEATTLE
SNOHOMISH COUNTY
VIEW FULL SNOHOMISH COUNTY REPORT
This post originally appeared on GetTheWReport.com
Local Market Update – November 2020
The number of people who can work remotely may be changing the way we view our homes, but one trend has not changed. The local housing market in October remained unseasonably hot. And that doesn’t show signs of changing any time soon.
October saw continued low inventory and record-level sales, with the number of sales exceeding that of 2019 year-to-date.
While new listings are on the rise, they are being snapped up quickly and many homes are selling in a matter of days. In King County there were 38% fewer single-family homes on the market as compared to a year ago. Snohomish County had 59% fewer listings. A four-month supply of homes for sale is considered a balanced market, but King and Snohomish counties currently have less than one month of supply.
With supply unable to keep up with demand, home prices are escalating at double-digit rates. The median single-family home price in King County rose 14% over a year ago to $745,000. Prices in Snohomish County jumped 17% year-over-year to a record high of $579,972. About half the homes that closed in October sold for over the asking price as compared to about a quarter of the homes the same time last year.
The real estate market here is uncommonly resilient. Growing employment in major tech industries and an enviable quality of life have made our region one of the fastest growing areas in the country. With interest rates remaining at record lows, we may well skip the traditional slowing in the winter market altogether.
The charts below provide a brief overview of market activity. If you are interested in more information, every Monday Windermere Chief Economist Matthew Gardner provides an update regarding the impact of COVID-19 on the US economy and housing market. You can get Matthew’s latest update here.
EASTSIDE
KING COUNTY
SEATTLE
SNOHOMISH COUNTY
VIEW FULL SNOHOMISH COUNTY REPORT
This post originally appeared on GetTheWReport.com
Local Market Update – October 2020
While daily life may seem unpredictable, the local real estate market remains extremely stable. Activity in September acted more like the traditional peak spring market with home sales soaring and prices hitting record highs. Inventory remains very tight and new listings are selling quickly in every price range.
There just aren’t enough homes on the market to meet demand. King County had about half the inventory of a year ago. Snohomish County had 63% fewer available homes. On the other hand, the number of condos on the market in King County jumped by 24% over last September. Brokers attribute the flood of new inventory to COVID remote workers looking to trade their in-city condo for more living space. Despite the increase in inventory, condo prices rose 8% in September and pending sales — the best indicator of current demand — shot up 36% over the same period last year.
The slim supply of single-family homes means bidding wars and all-cash offers were the norm, driving prices to record highs. King County saw the third consecutive month of record-setting values. The median home price hit $753,600 in September, a 14% jump over last year. Prices in Snohomish County soared 16% from a year ago to $569,997, just shy of its all-time high of $575,000. For both counties, half the homes sold for over list price in September as compared with just a quarter of the homes a year ago.
The market doesn’t show signs of cooling off any time soon. In September the greater Northwest area saw the highest number of transactions since June 2018. Pending sales were up 32% in King County and 29% in Snohomish County. Interest rates continue to be at historic lows. With the area posting some of the fastest population growth in the country, expect the market to stay unseasonably hot.
The charts below provide a brief overview of market activity. If you are interested in more information, every Monday Windermere Chief Economist Matthew Gardner provides an update regarding the impact of COVID-19 on the US economy and housing market. You can get Matthew’s latest update here.
EASTSIDE
KING COUNTY
SEATTLE
SNOHOMISH COUNTY
VIEW FULL SNOHOMISH COUNTY REPORT
This post originally appeared on GettheWReport.com
Local Market Update – August 2020
While the pace of daily life may seem slow right now, the
local real estate market has had an unusually busy summer. The number of
new listings in July was up, sales increased, and home prices followed
suit.
• While overall inventory is at historic lows, more sellers put their homes on
the market. New listings of single-family homes in King County jumped more than
25% from a year ago. Snohomish County saw a 7% increase in new listings.
• Pent-up buyer demand fueled sales activity in July. The number of pending
sales was up 17% over a year ago in King County, and up 13% in Snohomish
County.
• With buyers snapping up new listings as soon as they hit the market, total
available inventory dropped to a 10-year low for the month.
• The lack of inventory is benefiting sellers, and multiple offers are now common
at every price point. As a result, single-family home prices rose 7% in King
County and 15% in Snohomish County.
The charts below provide a brief overview of market activity. If you are interested in more information, every Monday Windermere Chief Economist Matthew Gardner provides an update regarding the impact of COVID-19 on the US economy and housing market. You can get Matthew’s latest update here.
EASTSIDE
KING COUNTY
SEATTLE
SNOHOMISH COUNTY
VIEW FULL SNOHOMISH COUNTY REPORT
This post originally appeared on GetTheWReport.com
Local Market Update – April 2020
Windermere is focused on keeping our clients and our community safe and connected. We’re all in this together. Since the early days of COVID-19, our philosophy has been “Go slow and do no harm.” While real estate has been deemed an “essential” business, we have adopted guidelines that prioritize everyone’s safety and wellness.
Like everything else in our world, real estate is not business as usual. While market statistics certainly aren’t our focus at this time, we’ve opted to include our usual monthly report for those who may be interested. A few key points:
- The monthly statistics are based on closed sales. Since closing generally takes 30 days, the statistics for March are mostly reflective of contracts signed in February, a time period largely untouched by COVID-19. The market is different today.
- We expect that inventory and sales will decline in April and May as a result of the governor’s Stay Home order.
- Despite the effects of COVID-19, the market in March was hot through mid-month. It remains to be seen if that indicates the strong market will return once the Stay Home order is lifted, or if economic changes will soften demand.
Every Monday Windermere Chief Economist Matthew Gardner provides an update regarding the impact of COVID-19 on the US economy and housing market. You can get Matthew’s latest update here.
Stay healthy and be safe. We’ll get through this together.
EASTSIDE
KING COUNTY
SEATTLE
SNOHOMISH COUNTY
VIEW FULL SNOHOMISH COUNTY REPORT
This post originally appeared on GetTheWReport.com
Local Market Update – March 2020
The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) has not yet dampened demand in the housing market. Traffic at open houses remains heavy. Buyers who had waited last year for a drop in prices have now seen several months of home prices increases. With demand far outstripping supply and record low interest rates, the market heading into spring looks hotter than ever.
EASTSIDE
Buyers that may have been in wait-and-see mode at the end of 2019 jumped off the fence in February. Pending sales (offers accepted but not yet closed) jumped 27%, snapping up already-tight inventory. 55% of homes on the market sold in 15 days or less. The median home price jumped 9% over a year ago to $985,000, an increase of $58,000 from the prior month. Development on the Eastside continues to surge and includes the recent groundbreaking for a 600-foot tower in Bellevue and a proposed 11-acre mixed-use project.
KING COUNTY
The tight housing market here got even tighter. There were 40% fewer homes on the market in King County in February than there were in January. The median home price rose 3% over the prior year to $675,000, up from $630,525 in January. With mortgage rates and the local unemployment rate both hitting record lows, demand isn’t likely to drop any time soon.
SEATTLE
With just six weeks of available inventory, competition for homes in Seattle remains fierce. Multiple offers were the norm, and 34% of homes purchased in February sold for over the listing price. The median price for a single-family home in February was $730,500, unchanged from a year ago and up from $719,950 in January.
SNOHOMISH COUNTY
The numbers in Snohomish County tell the story. There were 42% fewer listings in February than a year ago, and 42% more pending sales. With inventory at under a month of supply, there just aren’t enough homes to meet demand. That scarcity translated into higher prices, with the median price of a single-family home rising 8% over a year ago to $515,000.
VIEW FULL SNOHOMISH COUNTY REPORT
This post originally appeared on GetTheWReport.com
Local Happenings – November & December 2019
NOVEMBER EVENTS:
Seattle’s Beaujolais Nouveau Wine Festival
November 22nd
Beaujolais Nouveau wine is released at midnight each year on the third Thursday of November. Its arrival as the first wine of the harvest sparks worldwide celebrations. We host simultaneous events in Seattle and in Portland on the third Friday of November to commemorate this special tradition. Both events take place on November 22, 2019 this year.
LEARN MORE HERE
Enchant Mischievous
November 22nd – 29th
A world of Christmas wonder awaits as Enchant, The World’s Largest Christmas Light Maze & Market moves inside T-Mobile Park, November 22 – December 29, 2019.
Surrounded by millions of dazzling lights, the memories you make will last well beyond the holiday season. Get lost in the world’s largest light maze. Take photos around the largest Christmas tree the surrounding area. Glide around the ice-skating trail or waltz through the Enchant Christmas Market.
Free admission for children ages 3 and under.
LEARN MORE HERE
Seattle Musicians Access to Sustainable Healthcare
November 22nd – 29th
Seattle, WA., October 1, 2019, Seattle Area non-profit SMASH – Seattle Musicians Access to Sustainable Healthcare – announced their second annual benefit concert, a tribute to the music of Neil Young. SMASH is a nonprofit organization dedicated to keeping the Northwest’s music community healthy by providing health education, advocacy, and access to preventative healthcare. SMASH’s 2018 benefit was a great success and featured the first reunion by Seattle legends Mother Love Bone in over 8 years. The event received kudos from publications like Rolling Stone and Stereogum.
LEARN MORE HERE
GeekCraft Expo Seattle
November 29th
GeekCraft Expo Seattle is a 2-day event being held from 29th November to 1st December 2019 at the Hangar 30 in Seattle, United States. This is a handmade crafts market specializing in handmade, geek-themed crafts of all kinds such as clothing, accessories, toys, home decoration, furniture, art.
LEARN MORE HERE
DECEMBER EVENTS:
Where to see holiday lights in and around Seattle
Throughout December
If you’ve lived around Seattle for a while, you know that, between our high longitude and endless cloud cover, our winters are extremely dark. But there’s an upside: We put up twinkle lights early and often, with many a street tree glowing by the end of October, even before the holiday lights season.
LEARN MORE HERE
76 Seafair Holiday Cruise
December 8th
This heartwarming event takes to the water as independent boaters and charter operators volunteer their boats, crews and time to host approximately 1,500 intellectually disabled guests on a special holiday cruise on Lakes Union & Washington. Over 200 boats will be decked out in lights and holiday cheer at various docks and yacht clubs. Once on board, guests are treated to a snack and beverages provided by Safeway – Albertsons and participating boat owners and skippers. Guest also enjoy entertainment, gifts and visits from Santa Claus as they cruise for two hours through the Montlake Cut to Lake Washington. Simultaneous cruises take place in Bremerton, Tacoma and Olympia.
LEARN MORE HERE
This post originally appeared on GetTheWReport.com
LOCAL MARKET UPDATE – NOVEMBER 2019
A steady influx of buyers continued to strain already tight inventory throughout the area in October. Home sales were up, as were prices in much of the region. With our thriving economy and highly desirable quality of life drawing ever more people here, the supply of homes isn’t close to meeting demand. Homeowners thinking about putting their property on the market can expect strong buyer interest.
EASTSIDE
As the Eastside continues to rack up “best places” awards, it’s no surprise that the area is booming. Development is on the rise, fueled primarily by the tech sector. The appeal of the Eastside has kept home prices here the highest of any segment of King County. The median single-family home price in October was stable as compared to the same time last year, rising 1% to $900,000.
KING COUNTY
King County’s 1.74 months of available inventory is far below the national average of four months. Despite the slim selection, demand in October was strong. The number of closed sales was up 5% and the number of pending sales (offers accepted but not yet closed) was up 11%. The median price of a single-family home was down 2% over a year ago to $660,000. However, some areas around the more reasonably-priced south end of the county saw double-digit price increases.
SEATTLE
Seattle home prices took their largest year-over-year jump in 12 months. The median price of a single-family home sold in October was up 3% from a year ago to $775,000, a $25,000 increase from September of this year. Seattle was recently named the third fastest-growing city in America. Real estate investment is surging. A growing population and booming economy continue to keep demand for housing –and home prices—strong.
SNOHOMISH COUNTY
Both the number of home sales and home prices were on the rise in Snohomish County in October. Overall homes sales increased 7%, and the median price of a single-family home rose 5% over a year ago to $495,000. Supply remains very low, with just six weeks of available inventory.
VIEW FULL SNOHOMISH COUNTY REPORT
This post originally appeared on GetTheWReport.com
Local Market Update – October 2019
While fall usually brings a decrease in sales activity, the opposite was true in September. The number of listings on the market dropped by double digits and home sales rose. It is still a seller’s market, however prices have stabilized. With interest rates near historic lows and employment levels at historic highs, the housing market is expected to stay strong throughout the fall and winter.
EASTSIDE
Long the most affluent area of King County, the Eastside continues to record the highest home prices in the region. The median price of a single-family home on the Eastside was $928,500 in September, an increase of 4% from a year ago and a decrease of less than 1% from August. The Eastside construction boom continues, indicating that developers remain confident in the strength of the local economy.
KING COUNTY
The number of homes on the market in King County fell by almost 20% in September when compared to a year ago. However, last fall saw an increase in inventory that was unusual for the time of year. The median price of a single-family home was $660,000, down just 1% from the same time last year. Cities in King County, outside of Seattle, all saw price increases. Sales were up 7% indicating no shortage of buyers.
SEATTLE
Prices remained relatively stable, with the median price of a single-family home in September dipping 3% over a year ago to $750,000. As tech companies continue to recruit top talent to the area, Seattle’s population keeps booming and demand for housing remains high. While home sales traditionally dip in the fall, the city saw sales increase by 12% in September as compared to last year. Rising rents may push more buyers into the market.
SNOHOMISH COUNTY
Buyers continue to be drawn to Snohomish County thanks to a strong economy and housing costs that are considerably more affordable than King County. That influx of buyers is also driving up prices. The median price of a single-family home in September was $492,500, up from $484,995 the same time last year. At $167,500 less than the median price in King County, it’s a relative bargain.
VIEW FULL SNOHOMISH COUNTY REPORT
This post originally appeared on GetTheWReport.com
